15 Month Investigation Timeline.

A 15-month investigation does not inherently predict the likelihood of going to trial, a finding of guilt, or the overall length of the process, as the significance of that time frame is entirely dependent on whether the investigation is currently in the pre-indictment stage or post-indictment stage.

If the Investigation Is Pre-Indictment

If the fifteen-month investigation is still in its pre-indictment stage, it is quite ordinary for the process to remain ongoing for months or years before an arrest or indictment. If the federal authorities have been gathering evidence for fifteen months and have not charged you, the likelihood of going to trial remains unknown, and the case’s duration is not yet predictable.

If the Investigation Is Post-Indictment

If the fifteen-month duration is measured from the date of indictment to the present, the case’s location within the provided estimates depends on whether the case has reached its resolution. According to the information provided on our website, this is what we expect the timing to look like post-indictment:

• The provided data showed that for cases reaching the sentencing stage within eighteen months of the indictment, the average duration was between six and eighteen months. This is after the indictment, so a fifteen-month duration would be normal.
• The provided data further estimated that for all cases, the average duration between indictment and resolution was twelve to twenty-four months. A case at fifteen months would be right in the middle of this range.

Factors That Can Lengthen the Timeline

Complex fraud and multi-defendant conspiracy cases can also be more time-intensive, and their timelines can extend far beyond the ranges provided in our statistics.

Does Not Include Pre-Indictment Duration

Importantly, the duration estimate from indictment to resolution does not include the time spent investigating before the indictment. An investigation that lasts fifteen months before indictment, followed by another twelve-to-twenty-four months from indictment until resolution, would result in an overall process duration of twenty-seven to thirty-nine months.

Before Charges, What Do Target Status and Limitation Periods Actually Reveal?

A federal target letter is a formal notification to an individual that they have been designated as a target of a grand jury investigation. This letter typically explains the nature of the investigation, the individual’s alleged role, and it may formally invite the individual to communicate with prosecutors. Prosecutors often use target letters to assess the individual’s openness to cooperation or to encourage them to provide information in hopes of avoiding criminal charges.

Within federal investigations, individuals are often classified as targets, subjects, or witnesses. A target is the individual against whom the federal government’s evidence is most substantial, suggesting a strong belief that criminal activity occurred. A subject is an individual under scrutiny whose activities are of interest to the government, but there is not yet evidence sufficient to classify them as a target. A witness is someone who may have pertinent information related to the case but is not currently the focus of a criminal investigation.

A proffer agreement is a voluntary contract between an individual (or their legal counsel) and federal authorities. The agreement defines the terms and conditions under which the individual is willing to provide information about the alleged criminal activity to prosecutors. Because these agreements are negotiated on a case-by-case basis, the scope and strength of the protections they offer are not uniform across different cases.

The “open” or “closed” status of a federal case can vary between individuals involved in the same investigation. Federal prosecutors often charge one individual while continuing to investigate others, meaning the case can remain “open” in order to gather additional evidence or seek cooperation from co-defendants.

Federal limitation periods are statutory deadlines by which the government must file formal charges. These periods vary significantly depending on the offense, and numerous exceptions can extend the government’s authority to prosecute crimes.

How Do Complaints, Indictments, and Informations Create Different Federal Timelines?

A federal case typically begins in one of three ways: through a criminal complaint, a grand-jury indictment, or a criminal information. Each approach can lead to different investigative timelines and legal implications.

Criminal Complaints

A criminal complaint is the earliest formal filing in a federal criminal investigation. It is a written statement, made under oath, setting out the essential facts constituting the offense charged. To issue an arrest warrant based on a criminal complaint, a federal judge must determine that there is “probable cause” to believe that the accused committed the crimes listed. After a criminal complaint is filed, a judge may issue an arrest warrant or, when authorized, a summons requiring the defendant to appear before a magistrate judge. An arraignment hearing is typically held within the same day or the next day, depending on the judge.

Grand-Jury Indictments

A federal grand-jury indictment is a formal charging document issued by a federal grand jury. Unlike a trial, a grand jury hearing is confidential. This means that the defense attorney cannot be present, no evidence from the defense can be heard, and no cross-examination of government witnesses is allowed. Federal prosecutors present evidence to the grand jury, and the grand jurors are responsible for determining whether there is “probable cause” to return a federal indictment. A federal grand jury consists of 16 to 23 people, and at least 12 must concur in order to return an indictment. If a grand jury returns an indictment, the case moves toward trial or another resolution.

Criminal Informations

A criminal information is a formal charging document that does not involve a grand jury. An information requires an attorney’s approval, and typically the defendant’s consent as well. This is a common outcome for federal crimes that are resolved in a plea deal or when a defendant agrees to a reduced charge in exchange for cooperation. If a criminal information is filed, the defendant is formally charged in federal court, and the case moves toward arraignment and trial or another resolution, with sentencing if there is a conviction.

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Once Charged, Why Can a Federal Case Remain Unresolved After the Speedy-Trial Clock Starts?

Initial Appearance and Detention Hearing

Following a federal arrest, an individual must be taken before a magistrate judge without unnecessary delay, subject to applicable exceptions. At this appearance, the individual will learn of the charges against them, the magistrate judge will determine if they have counsel and will inform them of their rights, and will make a pretrial release decision. In some cases, a detention hearing is required so the judge can decide if pretrial release poses a risk of flight or community danger.

The Speedy Trial Act and Its Exclusions

Under the Speedy Trial Act, the federal trial presumption is a trial within seventy days after indictment or initial appearance. However, this seventy-day clock only applies to “controllable” delays. Legally excluded delays, such as those due to pretrial motions, scheduling conflicts, and other valid reasons, can lengthen the pre-trial timeline. Importantly, the Speedy Trial Act does not apply once a defendant enters a guilty plea.

Discovery

Once a case is charged, the next step is discovery. In federal criminal cases, this process generally involves the government disclosing the evidence required by the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure and applicable constitutional obligations. Discovery can include:

• Documents
• Electronic communications
• Financial records
• Video recordings
• Investigative reports

The amount of discovery and the time required for the defense to thoroughly review the evidence can significantly impact the duration of the pre-trial process.

Pretrial Motions

Pretrial motions are formal requests to the court that can address a wide range of issues before a trial begins. These include motions to suppress evidence, motions to change the venue for trial, and motions to dismiss charges. Filing and hearing these motions can add to the pre-trial time, and these delays are often legally excluded under the Speedy Trial Act.

Factors Influencing the Overall Case Timeline

Once a case reaches the indictment stage, numerous other factors can influence the time to resolution, such as plea negotiations, scheduling issues, and the defense team’s ability to prepare for trial. These factors can extend the case well beyond seventy days, which is why a duration of fifteen months, whether before or after indictment, is not a strong predictor of trial or guilt.

When Federal Cases Resolve, What Counts as Dismissal, Defense Success, or a Favorable Outcome?

Through pretrial motions, defense counsel in a federal criminal case can challenge searches, witness statements, evidence admissibility, and various charging defects. When a court rules in favor of the defense, this can lead to suppression motions to exclude key evidence from being heard at trial. In cases where a successful suppression motion removes the only evidence that supports the prosecution’s case, it can contribute to a dismissal.

Federal plea agreements also serve as a primary means of resolving federal cases. When a defendant and prosecutors enter into a federal plea agreement, this can involve anything from reduced charges and sentencing recommendations from the government to the defendant waiving the right to appeal. Even when an individual is convicted on several felony counts, a successful plea resolution can represent a major defense victory by providing significantly more favorable results than what the government originally sought to obtain.

Regarding conviction statistics, while reports of high conviction rates in federal court are common, those statistics often group guilty pleas and trial outcomes together. This obscures the actual success rate at trial, as guilty pleas can distort the perceived federal trial conviction rate. This is why focusing solely on these statistics can lead to an oversimplified and potentially misleading understanding of the likelihood of a conviction in a federal criminal trial.

Similarly, no single, authoritative nationwide statistic exists for the percentage of federal cases that result in a dismissal. The supplied pages did not provide the information needed to calculate such a number. When examining the data, it is also important to differentiate between various types of outcomes. An acquittal, dismissal, declination, diversion, and plea represent very different legal situations and varying levels of success for a defendant.

• An acquittal is the formal finding that the defendant was not guilty.
• A dismissal can occur when charges are removed by the court.
• Declination means federal prosecutors decided not to charge an individual.
• Diversion allows a defendant to avoid prosecution by completing specific requirements.
• A plea is a negotiated resolution.

For individuals in the justice system, any of these can represent a favorable outcome depending on the circumstances at hand.

Contact a Federal Criminal Defense Attorney

Nothing here is legal advice, and the details of your case matter. Todd Spodek and Spodek Law Group take federal criminal and white collar cases nationwide, from offices in New York, Brooklyn, Queens and Los Angeles. You can reach the firm at 888 348 8028.