How much jail time for mail fraud?

| by Max Soni

Thanks for visiting Spodek Law Group – a second-generation law firm managed by Todd Spodek. We’ve got over 40 years of combined experience handling federal cases others won’t touch. You might recognize us from the Netflix series about Anna Delvey, our work on the Ghislaine Maxwell juror misconduct case, or defending someone accused of stalking Alec Baldwin. This article breaks down mail fraud sentences – what you’re actually facing, what judges consider, and how these cases play out in 2025.

Mail fraud under 18 U.S.C. § 1341 carries up to 20 years in federal prison. That jumps to 30 years if you defrauded a bank or exploited a federal disaster. But the real sentence? That depends on loss amounts, victim counts, your criminal history – and whether your lawyer knows how sentencing guidelines actually work.

The Statute Says 20 Years, But Nobody Gets That

Federal judges don’t just throw the maximum at everyone. They can’t, really. The sentencing guidelines calculate a range based on the fraud amount and your background. Small-dollar schemes – we’re talking under $10,000 in losses – might result in probation or a year inside. Lose victims $1.5 million like the Montgomery conspiracy case from 2025, and you’re looking at 92 months. That’s seven years, eight months of your life.

The guidelines start with a base offense level – usually six or seven points for fraud crimes. Then they add points for loss amounts. Every increase in loss adds levels. Over $250,000 adds significant points. Over $1 million? You’re climbing into double-digit guideline increases before accounting for anything else.

Criminal history matters too. A clean record puts you in Category I, which means lower guideline ranges. Prior fraud convictions? You’re in Category II, III, maybe higher – each category bumps the prison range up by months or years. The sentencing table is unforgiving. An offense level of 20 with a Category I history might mean 33-41 months. Same offense level, Category III history, you’re at 46-57 months.

Loss Amount Drives Everything

Prosecutors calculate intended loss, not just actual loss. You mailed fraudulent invoices seeking $2 million but only collected $500,000? They’re arguing for $2 million in loss calculations. Judges often split the difference, but they can accept the government’s numbers entirely if the scheme shows clear intent to defraud for the higher amount.

Keith Fisher Sr. got 99 months in 2025 – that’s eight years, three months – partly because his fraud involved government contracts and multiple victim businesses. The loss amount pushes offense levels up the sentencing table. Couple that with violation of supervised release from a previous fraud conviction, and you’re stacking sentences. Fisher was already serving time when he ran another fraud scheme from prison. Federal judges despise that, despise it with a passion that shows in the sentence.

The difference between $95,000 in loss and $150,000 might seem trivial – it’s not. Cross certain thresholds and your guideline range jumps four, six, eight levels. Those levels translate to years. We fight loss amount calculations harder than almost anything else at sentencing. Prosecutors inflate numbers, include speculative damages, double-count victims. A skilled federal defense lawyer contests every dollar because every dollar affects your guideline calculation.

Financial Institution Fraud Hits Different

Defraud a bank, credit union, mortgage lender – any financial institution – and the statutory maximum climbs to 30 years. The actual sentences don’t typically hit 30, but they’re higher than standard mail fraud cases. Why? Congress decided financial institution fraud threatens the economy, undermines confidence in banking systems. Judges buy that reasoning.

Defendants awaiting sentencing in Augusta, Georgia faced statutory maximums of 30 years because their mail fraud involved bank fraud and stolen mail keys to access financial accounts. Using the mail to steal checks, deposit them fraudulently into bank accounts – that’s textbook financial institution fraud enhancement.

Same thing happens with federal disaster fraud. You run a scheme exploiting FEMA funds, COVID relief programs, disaster assistance – the statute allows 30 years maximum. Judges imposed lengthy sentences on PPP loan fraudsters during 2020-2023. That enforcement hasn’t stopped. The government prosecuted disaster fraud aggressively then, they’re prosecuting it now in 2025.

What Actually Happens at Sentencing

The presentence report determines most outcomes. A probation officer investigates your offense, calculates guidelines, recommends a sentence. Prosecutors submit their own sentencing memo – almost always arguing for guideline sentences or upward variances. Your lawyer submits a memo arguing for downward variances, alternative sentences, mitigating circumstances the guidelines ignore.

Acceptance of responsibility knocks three levels off your offense calculation if you plead guilty and genuinely accept what you did. That’s huge – three levels can mean 10-15 months less prison time. But you can’t fake it. Minimize the conduct, blame victims, claim ignorance of the law when you clearly knew – the judge denies the reduction. We’ve seen it happen. Defendants think they accepted responsibility because they pled guilty. Judges read the allocution, see them dodging accountability, and reject the adjustment entirely.

Cooperation with federal prosecutors can reduce sentences dramatically through 5K1.1 motions or Rule 35 motions. Provide substantial assistance – testify against co-conspirators, help recover assets, expose other fraud schemes – and prosecutors file motions asking judges to sentence below the guidelines. Some cooperators get 50% reductions. Others walk with time served if their cooperation resulted in major prosecutions.

But cooperation isn’t for everyone. It requires complete honesty, willingness to testify in open court, acceptance that co-defendants and their families will know you cooperated. Some defendants can’t do it morally. Others would be in physical danger. And some have nothing valuable to offer prosecutors.

Recent Sentences Show the Range

Hunter Hudson Jr. managed a mail fraud conspiracy in 2025, caused over $1.5 million in intended loss, and received 92 months. That’s the guideline range for his offense level and criminal history category – judges sentenced him within the calculated range. He also paid $987,883 in restitution and forfeited $91,020. Federal judges pile on restitution to compensate victims. You’ll pay it whether you’re in prison or out on supervised release.

Manuel Chang got 102 months – eight and a half years – in January 2025 for his role in a fraud scheme. These aren’t outlier sentences, they’re standard for mid-level fraud with significant dollar amounts. Cryptocurrency fraud cases from 2024 resulted in sentences ranging from 35 months to 45 months depending on the defendant’s role and loss amount.

Low-level participants in fraud conspiracies sometimes get 12-24 months if their role was minimal and the loss attributable to them specifically was under $100,000. But if you organized the scheme, recruited participants, or managed operations – you’re looking at substantial sentences even with moderate loss amounts.

What You’re Actually Up Against

Federal prosecutors have a 90% conviction rate in mail fraud cases. They don’t indict unless they have emails, recorded calls, financial records, cooperating witnesses – usually all of the above. The mail element is easy to prove: you used postal service, private carriers, or caused someone else to use them in furtherance of a fraud scheme. That’s it. The scheme doesn’t even need to succeed.

Trials are risky. Win, and you walk free. Lose, and judges often impose sentences at the top of the guideline range or above because you “made the government prove its case” instead of accepting responsibility. The trial penalty is real, though judges won’t call it that. They frame it as denying acceptance of responsibility reductions and failing to demonstrate remorse.

This is why defense strategy matters from day one – not after indictment, not after arrest. When federal agents first contact you or execute search warrants, your response shapes everything that follows. Talk without a lawyer present? You’ve likely given them evidence they’ll use to calculate higher loss amounts or prove your intent. Destroy documents? That’s obstruction, and it adds two levels to your offense calculation.

At Spodek Law Group – we’ve handled federal fraud cases ranging from $50,000 schemes to multi-million dollar prosecutions. Some clients had no criminal history and faced their first federal charge. Others were on supervised release when new charges came. Each case requires different strategies because guideline calculations, judicial districts, and individual circumstances vary wildly. What works in the Southern District of New York might fail in the Northern District of Alabama. Judges in some districts sentence below guidelines regularly; others stick to the guidelines religiously.

We focus on three things: contesting loss calculations to lower offense levels, securing cooperation agreements when beneficial, and presenting mitigation evidence judges actually care about. Your employment history, family circumstances, charitable works – judges consider those factors when deciding whether to vary from guidelines. But you need to present them effectively, not just submit character letters and hope for the best.

The Bottom Line on Mail Fraud Sentences

You’re facing 20 years maximum, 30 if banks or disasters are involved. Realistically? Sentences range from probation to 10+ years depending on loss amounts, criminal history, and role in the offense. The median sentence for federal fraud offenses in 2024 was approximately 18 months, but that includes all fraud types. Mail fraud cases with substantial losses push well above that median.

Early intervention changes outcomes. Once you’re indicted, your options narrow. Before indictment, you might convince prosecutors the loss amount is lower than they calculated, your role was minimal, or the case has proof problems. After conviction, you’re arguing for mercy – before conviction, you’re arguing facts and law.

Federal criminal defense isn’t about miracles – it’s about understanding how prosecutors build cases, how guidelines calculate sentences, and what judges actually consider when they impose punishment. The government has resources, time, and institutional knowledge. You need a defense lawyer who knows federal procedure, sentencing advocacy, and when to fight versus when to negotiate.

If you’re under investigation for mail fraud or already facing charges, the sentence you ultimately receive is being shaped right now by decisions you make and actions you take. That calculation happens in prosecutor offices, probation reports, and sentencing hearings – and every stage requires someone who knows how to contest their numbers and present your case.