What are my chances if I go to trial vs take a plea deal?

| by Max Soni

Last Updated on: 18th November 2023, 01:39 pm

Getting charged with a crime can be scary. Even if you’re innocent, the legal system is complicated. You may be wondering – should I take this to trial or just take a plea deal? It’s a tough call. On one hand, a trial gives you a chance to fight the charges and prove your innocence. But it also comes with big risks, like harsher punishment if you’re convicted. Let’s break it down so you can make the best choice.

The Benefits of Taking Your Case to Trial

The biggest benefit of going to trial is the chance for acquittal. If the prosecution can’t prove your guilt beyond a reasonable doubt, you walk free. Pretty sweet deal, right?Trials also give you way more legal protections. Things like the right to see all the prosecution’s evidence, cross-examine witnesses, and have a jury decide your fate. Those are powerful tools for the defense.You also have your lawyer putting the prosecution to their burden of proof. They have to turn over all evidence. Your attorney can try to get charges dismissed before trial by arguing there’s insufficient evidence or constitutional issues.If you do get convicted, you can appeal. That gives you another chance at freedom. Appeals are limited with plea bargains.So in a nutshell:

• Chance for complete acquittal
• Make the prosecution prove their case
• More legal protections and evidentiary rules
• Possibility of getting charges dropped before or during trial
• Can appeal a conviction

Not bad, huh? But trials aren’t all sunshine and roses…

The Risks of Taking a Criminal Case to Trial

While trials give you a shot at being cleared of all charges, they come with big risks too.The main one is harsher punishment if convicted. Judges tend to go easier on defendants who take plea deals. But throw down the gauntlet with a trial? Not so much. You may face the maximum sentence if found guilty.For example, let’s say you’re charged with armed robbery. The prosecution offers a plea deal for 5 years in prison. If you reject it and get convicted at trial, you could be looking at 15 years…or more.You’re also rolling the dice with your fate. There are no guarantees. Even if you know you’re innocent, the jury could still convict. Then you’re stuck with that harsh sentence.Other risks include:

• Stress of trial – It’s a demanding process. You’ll have to testify and face cross-examination.
• Trial costs – Your attorney fees will skyrocket compared to a plea deal. Expect to pay tens of thousands more.
• Reputation damage – Your name is dragged through the mud in open court. For high profile cases, it’s on the news and internet too.
• Jail time pre-trial – If you can’t get bail, you’re stuck in jail awaiting trial. That could be months of your life wasted behind bars if found not guilty.

So while the rewards of an acquittal are high, so are the risks. It’s a gamble either way.

Deciding if a Trial is Worth the Risk

With the pros and cons in mind, how do you decide what to do? Here are some key factors to weigh:

How Strong is the Evidence Against You?

If the case is weak, trial is likely your best bet. Is there shaky witness testimony? Evidence that was obtained illegally? Any chance physical evidence could have been contaminated or tampered with? Could your lawyer get key evidence dismissed?Weak prosecution cases crumble under all the evidentiary rules and scrutiny of trial. But those weaknesses are often ignored in plea bargaining.But if there’s rock solid evidence – like DNA, video, or reliable eyewitnesses – it may be smart to cut your losses. An acquittal will be very hard to achieve.

What are You Facing if Convicted?

The potential penalty if found guilty should heavily factor into your decision.Is it a misdemeanor with probation or months in jail if convicted? Then you may want to roll the dice on trial.But if you’re looking at major prison time of 10, 20 years or more, the risks likely outweigh the rewards. Getting just a fraction of that with a plea may be wise.

What Does Your Lawyer Recommend?

Your attorney should give you their candid opinion on your chances at trial. Do they seem confident you could win? Or are they advising you to take the plea?Trust their judgment. Public defenders handle hundreds of cases and have a good sense of which ones are trial bound or not. If your lawyer thinks it’s a long shot, seriously consider a plea.

How Long Might You Wait for Trial?

Some jurisdictions have huge court backlogs. You may have to wait a year or more for trial if you pass on a plea deal today.Spending that long in jail pre-trial can jeopardize jobs, relationships, and your finances. It’s a valid reason to take a plea and get sentenced quickly.

Are the Odds of Winning Appeal Good?

If convicted at trial, do you have solid appeal issues to get the verdict overturned? For example, did the judge make an error in allowing some evidence? That kind of thing can lay the groundwork for appeal.If your chances on appeal look questionable, it may not be worth the risk of trial. But if appeal looks promising, it reduces the downside.

How Much Do the Collateral Consequences Matter?

Will a conviction severely damage your finances, custody rights, immigration status, or ability to work in your profession? If the collateral consequences are severe, trial may be worth the gamble.But if the consequences aren’t drastically worse with a plea bargain, you may want to play it safe.

What are Your Personal Goals?

Some people just won’t accept pleading guilty, even if it’s the smart move. They want to hold the system accountable or have their day in court. That principle matters most to them.Others feel the top priority is avoiding jail time. Freedom and family are what they value most.Think about your goals and values. Do they align more with the benefits of trial or the certainty of a plea bargain? Let that guide your choice.

Talk to Your Lawyer

With all this said, the trial vs plea decision is very personal. Every case and defendant is different.Your attorney will lay out your options, chances, and their advice. Listen closely and ask lots of questions. Discuss the pros/cons in depth.Most plea offers have deadlines, so move quickly. But don’t rush into anything until you’ve weighed the risks and feel good about your choice. This is your life, so make sure it’s the right call for you.The bottom line – there are no easy answers. Trial vs plea deal is a complex choice. Do your homework, trust your lawyer, and follow your gut. With the right information, you can make the best decision for where you stand today.