How Much Could Sentences Be Reduced Under Amendment 821 Retroactivity?

Hey there! I wanted to write this article to help explain the recent changes to federal sentencing guidelines under Amendment 821 and what it could mean for people currently incarcerated in federal prisons. This stuff can be really confusing, even for lawyers, so I’ll try to break it down in simple terms.

When the Commission changes the guidelines for how federal sentences get calculated, those changes are usually only for future cases. Making a change “retroactive” means it can apply to sentences that were already handed down under the old rules. So people who were sentenced before Amendment 821 took effect could now be eligible for lower sentences based on the new rules. Their cases can get re-opened for what’s called a “sentence reduction order.”

What Does Amendment 821 Do?

In simple terms, Amendment 821 changes how criminal history points are calculated under the US Sentencing Guidelines[2]. Specifically, it creates a new provision that allows a 2-level decrease in the offense level for defendants who received zero criminal history points under the guidelines, and whose crime did not involve certain aggravating factors.

This change will primarily benefit people with little or no criminal record who got long sentences under mandatory minimums or other enhancements. For example, someone with no prior record who got 10 years for a low-level drug crime or nonviolent offense.

When Does the Retroactivity Take Effect?

On August 24th, 2023, the Sentencing Commission voted to allow the retroactive application of Amendment 821 to start on February 1st, 2024[2]. This means that starting on February 1st, 2024, certain federal prisoners could become eligible for reduced sentences under the amendment.

The Commission said it needed time to notify and educate courts and stakeholders before the retroactivity takes effect. Prisoners won’t see immediate relief, but at least there is now a date when resentencing can begin under the new rules.

Who Is Eligible for a Reduced Sentence?

Not every federal inmate will qualify for a lower sentence under Amendment 821 retroactivity. The Commission estimates around 11,500 people will be eligible, out of over 140,000 federal prisoners[4].

To qualify, someone must have:

• Been sentenced before the amendment took effect (so before November 1, 2023)
• Received no criminal history points under the guidelines
• Not convicted of a crime of violence or other serious offense

Prisoners will have to file a motion with the sentencing court asking for a reduction based on the retroactive amendment. If the judge agrees they qualify, the court can resentence them under the new guidelines.

How Much Could Sentences Be Reduced?

For those who qualify, the average reduction is estimated to be around 14 months off their sentence[4]. But some prisoners could see even bigger cuts if the change takes them below a mandatory minimum.

Overall, the Commission predicts retroactive application of Amendment 821 will reduce sentences by a total of about 11.7% for qualifying inmates[5].

While a year or more off a sentence is significant, some advocates hoped for more sweeping changes. But the Commission said it tried to balance fairness with public safety in deciding the retroactivity terms.

What Do Supporters Say?

Supporters argue Amendment 821 retroactivity is an important step toward fixing harsh sentencing laws from the 1980s and 90s. They say it will help correct unfair punishments for lower-level offenders with little or no criminal history.

Groups like FAMM and the ACLU say thousands of first-time offenders have faced overly punitive mandatory minimums, enhanced sentencing, and other rules that failed to account for personal circumstances.

They argue the reforms in Amendment 821 are modest but will still help many inmates who received disproportionate sentences under old policies now seen as draconian.

What Do Critics Argue?

Some prosecutors, lawmakers, and advocacy groups opposed making Amendment 821 retroactive. They argue it could let dangerous offenders out early who still pose a public safety risk.

Critics say judges handed down appropriate sentences under the rules at the time. They warn blanket reductions now would undermine respect for the law and hurt victims.

Some also feel the Commission moved too fast to make the complex changes retroactive without sufficient analysis of the impact.

What Comes Next?

The Sentencing Commission says it will provide guidance to courts before February 1, 2024 so they can start processing motions for reduced sentences under Amendment 821.

Thousands of federal inmates will be watching closely to see if they might benefit from the changes. Prisoners will need to research the amendment and make their case for a lower sentence.

This won’t undo mass incarceration, but giving judges more discretion could be the start of unwinding the harshest penalties. The retroactivity also signals a shift away from inflexible sentencing policies that have hurt so many.

The impact on individuals and families could be profound. Even shaving off a year or two allows more opportunity to heal, prepare for reentry, and work toward redemption.