Could Amendment 821 Retroactivity Lead to Further State-Level Reforms?

Could Amendment 821 Retroactivity Lead to Further State-Level Reforms?

On August 24, 2023, the U.S. Sentencing Commission voted 4-3 in favor of the delayed retroactive application of Amendment 821, which relates to criminal history calculations in federal sentencing guidelines. This significant move makes certain inmates eligible for reduced sentences, with the changes taking effect on February 1, 2024.

Amendment 821 introduces targeted, evidence-based changes to certain criminal history rules. Because parts of the amendment reduce future defendants’ sentencing ranges, the Commission had to consider whether to apply those changes retroactively to people already serving sentences. After much debate, they decided to allow retroactivity in a delayed manner.

Background on Amendment 821

Specifically, Amendment 821 makes two key modifications:

• Part A limits the cumulative impact of “status points” that are added to criminal history scores. For example, defendants get status points just for being on probation, parole, etc. when the offense occurred. This part caps the total points from status at 2.
• Part B changes how old sentences are counted. Currently, any prior sentence over a year and a month gets 3 points. The amendment changes this to 2 points for sentences between 1-3 years old. Sentences over 3 years old will no longer count at all.

These tweaks are projected to reduce sentences for certain first-time and low-level offenders. The Commission’s analysis found over 10,000 currently incarcerated people could see lower guideline ranges, with sentence reductions averaging almost 12%.

The Retroactivity Debate

Making Amendment 821 retroactive was controversial. Law requires the Commission to consider applying changes retroactively if they reduce sentences. But they have discretion whether or not to actually do so.

Arguments against retroactivity included:

• Could let dangerous criminals out early
• Burdens the courts with resentencing proceedings
• Undermines finality in sentences

Arguments for retroactivity included:

• Fairness – new rules should apply to those already serving time
• Cost savings from earlier releases
• Relief focused on low-level offenders

Ultimately, the Commission allowed retroactivity in a delayed manner, with resentencing starting February 2024. This compromise addressed concerns like public safety and court workload. It also gave time to prepare and notify affected inmates.

Potential Impact on State Reform Efforts

While Amendment 821 is limited to federal sentencing, many believe its retroactivity could spur further reforms at the state level too. Here are some key reasons why:

• Signals national momentum for change – the federal system making progress creates pressure on states to follow suit.
• Research shows bipartisan support for revisiting tough-on-crime era laws, which states enacted alongside federal changes.
• If retroactivity succeeds federally, it demonstrates these policies can be implemented safely at the state level.
• States may see financial benefits from reducing incarceration like the federal system expects.

However, some counter that differences between federal and state systems mean the impact will be limited:

• Most incarcerated individuals are in state prisons – reforms to federal sentencing affect a relatively small population.
• Politics and public opinion differ across states, so there’s less consensus on reform needs.
• States have more resource limitations than the federal system.

On balance, many experts seem to think Amendment 821 retroactivity will lend momentum to state-level reforms, though the degree of impact remains uncertain. Some states are already pursuing changes like recalibrating mandatory minimums and expanding parole eligibility.

For example, recent analysis found 24 states passed laws last year related to sentencing and corrections policy. The trends included reducing penalties for drug offenses and raising the age of criminal responsibility to 18. Amendment 821 adds evidence that retroactively applying such reforms is feasible without compromising public safety.

What Comes Next?

Assuming Congress does not block Amendment 821, the next key date is February 1, 2024. That’s when courts can begin holding hearings and ordering reduced sentences for eligible inmates under the retroactive provisions.

The Sentencing Commission estimates around 11,500 people could get relief, with most seeing 1-2 years taken off their sentences. However, some expect the actual number to be lower for reasons like good behavior credits and compassionate release already resulting in earlier release for certain inmates.

Going forward, many will be watching the rollout closely. If retroactivity succeeds in reducing recidivism and other goals, it will offer powerful support to continue expanding reforms at both the federal and state level.

However, if problems emerge like spikes in crime, it could stall momentum. Lawmakers may grow reluctant to back further changes seen as weakening public safety. So the next year will be crucial in determining the long-term impact.

In addition to tracking results, important next steps include:

• Ensuring retroactivity is implemented consistently and inmates understand the process.
• Expanding reentry and rehabilitation programs to support successful reintegration.
• Applying lessons learned to push for further reforms like ending mandatory minimums.

Amendment 821 retroactivity offers hope for thousands through reduced sentences focused on their actual risk and needs. While not a panacea, it’s a positive step forward. The key will be channeling any momentum it generates into sustained, multifaceted improvements at both the federal and state level.

The bottom line is Amendment 821 retroactivity offers hope for thousands of inmates through reduced sentences focused on their actual risk and needs. While debates will persist, this incremental reform can help build support for the long-term work of creating a criminal justice system that is both fairer and more effective.

References

[1] United States Sentencing Commission Press Release on Amendment 821 Retroactivity

[2] Reader Friendly Version of Amendment 821

[3] Article on Retroactivity of Amendment 821

[4] Article on Latest Information on Amendment 821 Retroactivity

[5] Federal Register Notice on Amendment 821

[6] Forbes Article on Sentencing Commission Approval of Amendment 821 Retroactivity