Amendment 821 Retroactivity: Projecting the Timeline and Pace of Sentence Reductions

The recent decision by the U.S. Sentencing Commission to make Amendment 821 retroactive is a big deal that could allow thousands of federal inmates to get their sentences reduced starting in February 2024. But even though it seems like a done deal on paper, how’s it actually gonna play out over the next few months as inmates start filing petitions for relief? I wanted to write this article to walk through the timeline of events and make some predictions about how fast or slow things might move.

What is Amendment 821?

First, a quick recap on what Amendment 821 actually is. Back in June 2023, the Sentencing Commission voted to change some of the rules that determine a defendant’s criminal history score under the guidelines. Specifically, they made targeted changes to the way certain prior convictions are counted when calculating someone’s criminal history category. For some inmates, this amendment could lower their guideline range by several months or even years.

In August, the Commission took it a step further by voting to allow delayed retroactive application of the amendment. This means it can apply retroactively to people who were already sentenced under the old rules.

The Retroactivity Timeline

Okay, so when will inmates actually start seeing lower sentences under Amendment 821? Here’s a quick timeline:

• August 24, 2023 – Sentencing Commission votes to allow retroactivity
• November 1, 2023 – Amendment 821 goes into effect for future cases
• February 1, 2024 – Earliest date inmates can begin filing motions for sentence reductions

So even though we’re past the initial vote, it’ll be several more months before retroactivity kicks in. Inmates will have to wait until February 2024 before formally petitioning courts for relief. And even then, it doesn’t mean everyone will automatically get a lower sentence. But more on that later…

Projecting the Pace of Sentence Reductions

In their own analysis, the Sentencing Commission estimated that around 11,500 inmates would see lower guideline ranges under Amendment 821 retroactivity, with an average reduction of 14 months. That’s a pretty huge number!

But given how slow the wheels of justice often turn, what’s the likelihood that anywhere near 11,500 inmates will actually end up with reduced sentences after filing petitions? I’d guess the actual number will be a lot less, at least initially. Here’s why:

• Judges may be hesitant to grant too many reductions too quickly
• Inmates will need lawyers to file petitions on their behalf
• Prosecutors may challenge petitions they don’t agree with
• Courts are already overwhelmed with cases – new petitions could take a long time to resolve

My prediction is that we’ll see a trickle of sentence reductions at first, not a flood. District courts will likely take a cautious approach, at least at the outset. We might be looking at just hundreds of reductions in 2024, not thousands. But then again, it’s hard to predict – some judges might be very receptive and start granting petitions quickly.

The Court-by-Court Analysis

To really understand how retroactivity will play out, you have to look district-by-district across the 94 federal judicial districts. How a particular court handles Amendment 821 will depend a lot on the philosophies of local judges and prosecutors. Some districts might grant a large percentage of petitions, while others could deny most requests.

Over time, we’ll start to see meaningful patterns across districts and circuits. For example, certain circuits like the 9th could be much more reduction-friendly than circuits like the 5th and 11th. But we won’t know for sure until cases start getting decided.

At SentencingStats.com, we track and analyze federal sentencing data across all 94 districts – and we’re uniquely positioned to monitor Amendment 821 implementation trends across jurisdictions. We’ll be keeping a close eye on which districts are granting the most and fewest petitions in the coming months.

The Impact on Individual Inmates

While we can make predictions about the aggregate numbers, it’s important to remember the profound impact even one year of reduced imprisonment could have on an individual inmate and their family. For some, it could mean finally having a light at the end of the tunnel after years or decades behind bars.

My hope is that courts consider each petition carefully and make reduction decisions that are fair and consistent with the Commission’s intent. They should avoid blanket denials and give inmates a fair shot, even if it means more work for the courts.

For defense lawyers like me, Amendment 821 will open up countless hours of new work advocating for clients who deserve relief. And I can’t wait to start filing petitions next February and giving inmates their day in court!